The "Tariffs and India" report, released by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), assesses the potential impact of the U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Plan and suggests strategies for the Indian government and industry stakeholders to minimize losses.
The U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Plan seeks to address trade imbalances by imposing higher tariffs on countries with which the U.S. has a trade deficit.
Impact of the U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Plan on India: Indian exports could face an additional tariff of 4.9%, compared to the current 2.8%.
Sector-Level Impact:
- Agriculture: Farm exports, especially shrimp, dairy, and processed foods, could face tariffs up to 38.2%.
- Industrial Goods: Key sectors like pharmaceuticals, diamonds and jewelry, and electronics are at significant risk. For example, the tariff difference in the pharmaceutical sector could reach 10.9%, potentially increasing the cost of generic medicines, impacting demand, and reducing competitiveness.
- Minimal Impact: Petroleum, minerals, and garments may remain unaffected.
Recommendations:
- Advance Tariff Offer to the U.S. & Abandon FTA Plan: India should propose a zero-for-zero strategy by identifying specific tariff lines where India can eliminate tariffs on U.S. imports without harming domestic industries.
- Adopt Retaliatory Measures: India should reject unfair concessions and consider countermeasures, similar to China's response.
- Address Trade Data Discrepancies: India and the U.S. should resolve the significant differences in trade data to avoid tariff decisions based on inaccurate information.
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